Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.085436 0.097458 0.110513 0.125738 0.142998 0.161955 0.184348
2026-01-11 0.066790 0.082343 0.100523 0.123323 0.151133 0.183935 0.225552
2026-01-18 0.054023 0.071555 0.093488 0.122893 0.161239 0.209506 0.274849
2026-01-25 0.041715 0.059189 0.082517 0.115850 0.162172 0.224185 0.313442
2026-02-01 0.032079 0.048636 0.072165 0.107902 0.160675 0.235591 0.349882
2026-02-08 0.025584 0.041332 0.065086 0.103332 0.163163 0.252948 0.397666
2026-02-15 0.020488 0.035187 0.058666 0.098638 0.164714 0.269254 0.446790
2026-02-22 0.017561 0.031959 0.056237 0.099803 0.175651 0.301750 0.526621
2026-03-01 0.014350 0.027633 0.051244 0.095834 0.177460 0.319816 0.585917
2026-03-08 0.011929 0.024251 0.047289 0.092977 0.180709 0.340838 0.653837
2026-03-15 0.009993 0.021405 0.043803 0.090354 0.183929 0.362303 0.726126
2026-03-22 0.008868 0.019955 0.042734 0.092213 0.196035 0.402146 0.839593
2026-03-29 0.007588 0.017967 0.040320 0.091126 0.202534 0.433098 0.942731
2026-04-05 0.006640 0.016518 0.038782 0.091648 0.212588 0.473064 1.071657
2026-04-12 0.005901 0.015397 0.037763 0.093157 0.225155 0.520546 1.225171
2026-04-19 0.004935 0.013509 0.034620 0.089164 0.224551 0.539343 1.318705
2026-04-26 0.004072 0.011689 0.031277 0.084036 0.220335 0.549334 1.394006
2026-05-03 0.003465 0.010411 0.029034 0.081238 0.221361 0.571893 1.503555
2026-05-10 0.002941 0.009240 0.026836 0.078119 0.221006 0.591096 1.608404
2026-05-17 0.002664 0.008728 0.026328 0.079523 0.232979 0.643498 1.807742
2026-05-24 0.002282 0.007802 0.024461 0.076704 0.232812 0.664296 1.927202
2026-05-31 0.001980 0.007058 0.022968 0.074681 0.234553 0.690588 2.066526
2026-06-07 0.001724 0.006401 0.021605 0.072774 0.236294 0.717237 2.211744